Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 3, 2017

This is the most volatile year for political risk since World War II, @EurasiaGroup says https://t.co/7EfzqhH11p http://pic.twitter.com/E7XwVa5VkP
— Bloomberg (@business) January 3, 2017

Rainer Buergin, Bloomberg: It’s the ‘Most Volatile’ Year for Political Risk Since WWII, Eurasia Group Says

* Weakened Merkel, China-U.S. tension, Turkey drift in outlook
* Dollar may strengthen amid turmoil: Eurasia Group’s Bremmer

U.S. unilateralism under Donald Trump, China’s growing assertiveness and a weakened German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make 2017 the “most volatile” year for political risk since World War II, according to Eurasia Group.

“In 2017 we enter a period of geopolitical recession,” the New York-based company said in its annual outlook. International war or “the breakdown of major central government institutions” isn’t inevitable, though “such an outcome is now thinkable.”

With Trump’s ascent to the presidency on an America First platform, the global economy can’t count on the U.S. to provide “guardrails” anymore, according to Eurasia, which advises investors on political risk. Trump’s signals of a thaw with Russia, skepticism toward the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and his “alignment” with European anti-establishment parties such as France’s National Front could weaken the main postwar alliance protecting the global order, according to the report released Tuesday.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- January 3, 2017

2017

may turn out to be a miserable year for Europe -- DW

Germany's New Policing Model -- Leonid Bershidsky, Bloomberg

British politicians can still prevent Brexit -- Dennis Kennedy, Irish Times

Russia’s New Favorite Jihadis: The Taliban -- Thomas Joscelyn, Daily Beast

Russia Resurgent -- Joshua keating, Slate

The Assad conundrum -- John Bell, Al Jazeera

The Guardian view on the Arab spring: it could happen again -- Guardian editorial

The Reina atrocity shows how deeply Islamic fanaticism has taken hold in Turkey -- Elif Shafak, The Guardian

Aung San Suu Kyi fails to calm Myanmar’s ethnic violence -- The Economist

Nigeria Could Teach the West a Few Things -- Tyler Cowen, Bloomberg

Will Trump preserve Obama’s Iran policies? -- Sigurd Neubauer, Al Arabiya

What does Trump know about Russia -- Bret Stephens, WSJ

Boxed into a corner? 4 ways Donald Trump could deal with North Korea -- Katie Hunt, CNN

Can Trump Clean Up the Mess Obama Made of Asia Policy? -- Patrick Smith, Fiscal Times

Facing North Korea and Iran, Trump Must Strengthen Nuclear Deterrence -- Tom Rogan, NRO

No, the U.S. doesn’t need to expand its nuclear weapons program -- Steven Pifer, Brookings

From ‘Dreamers’ to nukes, Obama still has time to make a difference -- Josh Cohen, Reuters