by Gordon Arthur
India is extremely wary of the maritime inroads that China is making into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Indeed, some analysts are alleging that China is ‘India’s Greatest Security Threat’
Speaking at the ADECS 2018 conference in Singapore, Anil Jai Singh, a retired Indian Navy (IN) commodore and vice president and head of the Delhi branch of the Indian Maritime Foundation think tank, said ‘in the Indo-Pacific, China’s domination is succeeding perhaps beyond its own expectations’.
Singh described the IOR as China’s ‘next frontier’ via its strategy of establishing bases in Djibouti and Gwadar (or more likely at Jiwani or Ormara), increasing its naval presence and operating submarines in the North Arabian Sea.
This activity will have the effect of limiting India’s strategic manoeuvre space. Furthermore, Chinese naval bases on the Pakistan coast will have the potential to affect Indian sea trade.
While the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) does not currently have the ability to sustain naval operations in the IOR against a force as large as the IN, he said this would change within 5-7 years. By that time, China will have far greater staying power against the IN thanks to access to new bases.
Further, Singh claimed that China’s intent for global power is being achieved by its maritime reach as the nation moves from a continental power to a maritime one. He predicted that China’s third aircraft carrier, now under construction, will be dedicated to the IOR.
He believes China is seeking hegemony in the South China and East China seas, is trying to diminish US influence and that its muscle flexing is all part of its strategic design.
He told delegates at ADECS 2018 that part of Beijing’s aim is to create regional uncertainty by keeping various issues simmering (e.g. the border dispute with India) and keeping ASEAN divided.
Singh described the IN as a ‘balanced carrier battlegroup-centric blue-water navy capable of sea control, power projection and expeditionary operations. He said the navy is undersea warfare-capable, plus it holds a second-strike nuclear strike capability via submarines.
Against the Chinese threat, Singh strongly warned that ‘mere rhetoric is not enough’ and that a ‘bold posture is essential to send the right message’. He illustrated Delhi’s stand at Doklam along the Chinese border as evidence of a more assertive policy from Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
With the Cold War and India’s ‘non-alignment status dead and gone’, India sees cooperative engagement as the best approach. So now it is seeking alignments, though not alliances. The recent appearance of the heads of state of all ten ASEAN nations at the Republic Day parade represents this goal of inclusivity.
Singh boldly predicted that ‘the Indo-Pacific region is going to shape the new world order’ and that is also ‘going to be the scene of Cold War 2.0’.