India's decision could be seen as a positive gesture by its friends in the Islamic world
The Modi government’s decision to stop combat operations against militants in Jammu & Kashmir during the month of Ramzan will necessarily have an effect on India’s foreign policy.
The decision echoes former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s action in 2000. In 2003, Vajpayee again used Kashmir as a forum to offer the now famous “olive branch” to Pakistan. Is something similar on the cards this time as well?
First, the Centre’s decision would have to be met halfway by J&K militants themselves. It’s clear that if they initiate attacks against Indian security forces, they would retaliate. But if this offer gets traction, perhaps through the summer months, it could mean that Pakistan army, which remains the prime sponsor of violent militancy in the Valley, could instruct their fighters to lie low.
Second, it could signal to Pakistan army that despite successful operations, India is willing to give peace a chance — and watch out for Pakistan’s response. The Pakistan army chief Gen Bajwa has gone on record to suggest that a peace move with India was necessary. Whether that was mere rhetoric or not could be tested as India makes the first move.
Third, while India has not come under international pressure on the continuing unrest in J&K, India’s newfound friends in the Islamic world would see this as a positive gesture. Bangladesh recently initiated a reform proposal in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to invite countries like India as observers in the grouping.
If Pakistan responds in any meaningful fashion, India could have the opportunity to repair its broken relationship with its most difficult neighbour. After the Uri attack in 2016, India and Pakistan have had no substantive official interactions. The recent allegations by Pakistan’s NAB against Nawaz Sharif funnelling funds to India is seen as a one-off, but there have been some green shoots of engagement between New Delhi and Islamabad.
The Modi government has taken a two-pronged approach — official silence alongside quiet contacts between the national security advisers. Somehow this has helped to keep the bilateral relationship from falling into the abyss. A tough stand against Pakistan has great resonance among the BJP base, therefore, the Modi government would have to play this outreach with patience.