by Pranab Dhal Samanta
The suspension of operations for the Ramzan period has so far been well received. The 11 terrorists killed in this period were on the Line of Control in North Kashmir while trying to infiltrate.
There are two numbers that stare you in the face in Kashmir today – 71 and 65. What are they? 71 are the number of Kashmiri terrorists killed in the first five months of 2018. And 65 is the number of youth who have reportedly joined terrorist groups from within Kashmir in the same period.
If the first number is a glowing reflection of the success of military and police operations, the second is a worrying statement of failure. To put in context, 71 killed terrorists is the highest in a decade for the first five months of the year in Kashmir.
Last year, 203 terrorists were killed. Which means that in 18 months over 280 terrorists have been killed and mostly in South Kashmir. So, this is quite a successful period for security forces. But at the same time 147 Kashmiri youth were reportedly recruited in 2017.
In all, by now the ballpark is 200 recruited for 280 killed. This, in the big picture, should be enough to initiate conversations, where possible structured dialogues, to address the problem of running into a very vicious circle of terror and violence.
By now, the forces have killed the bunch of young terrorist commanders of 2011-12, largely comprising the likes of Burhan Wani, Saddam Paddar and Sameer Tiger who had captured the attention of young Kashmiris, even acquired a fan following of sorts. Having done so, the question is how to prevent a next generation of such terror faces landing on the scene. This is where the political process must take over and the window is now.
Even though recruitment is on the rise, there is vacuum in the leadership after all these encounters. This gives the government time to be innovative in its reach out, particularly to the youth and separatists among them.
The suspension of operations for the Ramzan period has so far been well received. The 11terrorists killed in this period were on the Line of Control in North Kashmir while trying to infiltrate. Yes, there have been grenade attacks but security forces have managed to show restraint. Politically too, this is a good moment of opportunity. The BJP at this point will not want to have a showdown with J&K CM Mehbooba Mufti over reaching out to Kashmiri groups.
Also, Pakistan goes to polls in July. India will not want any incident in Kashmir or any issue related to Kashmir to suddenly dominate these hotly contested elections.
In conflict situations, such windows of opportunity tend to suddenly appear because of a coinciding of interests and political motivations.
Kashmir is at that juncture and eyes will be on the political leaderships in both Delhi and Srinagar as how they respond. In other words, which is the number – 71 or 65 – that will determine the next in this political course post-Ramzan.
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