The unprecedented US-North Korea summit had clear winners and losers. Kim Jung-un short-changed Trump on this deal and got a pinky swear from the Korean dictator in return. India which is not directly affected, however, hopes that international scrutiny on North Korea might expose the role it played in Pakistan's nuclear program.
In an unprecedented and much-awaited Donald Trump-Kim Jong-un summit last week not much was achieved from Washington’s position. The United States got photo-ops and Trump’s braggadocio that he achieved what no other US President was able to do --get North Korea to a table. US President Donald Trump signed an agreement with North Korea’s Supreme leader Kim Jong-un to “build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula”. But foreign policy watchers say Trump got short-changed on this deal when he agreed to put US-South Korea military exercise on hold.
US-South Korea military exercises have been instrumental in preventing a ROKS Cheonan-like incident where North torpedoed a South Korean submarine with 104 crew members onboard. Trump surprised the world when he announced in Singapore during the summit that “war games” will be on hold until the negotiations are on with North Korea and it doesn’t develop or test nuclear weapons. In return, United States has got a promise from Kim Jong-un that they will “work toward” the goal of denuclearisation.
“There’s really nothing to enforce at this point. The text of the agreement is so vague that it’s not clear what could be enforced. Remember, North Korea hasn’t agreed to give up or suspend anything. They’ve literally committed to nothing, so what would we even verify,” Vipin Narang, MIT, professor of political science and an expert on US-North Korea relations told Vox.
The real winners of the summit, however, were clearly North Korea and China. Whether Pyongyang will actually walk the talk on its promise to denuclearise is anybody’s guess. But a freeze on US-South Korea military exercises is exactly what the hermit nation and its neighbour China wanted. For China, it’s a double freeze – a pause in nuclear weapons testing in its immediate neighbourhood and another one on US-South Korea exercises –which might ultimately translate to a lesser footprint of United States in the region.
Also, the summit’s outcome has ultimately consolidated China’s position as a stakeholder in any negotiation with Pyongyang. Just months ago, it seemed as if China will be cut off completely from any negotiations with the secluded nation after Washington established a direct contact with North Korea.
“The visual that Kim flew on the Chinese special jet to Singapore for the historic summit with the US President Donald Trump is a subtle but apt reminder of China’s influences in the rapidly changing geopolitical game over the Korean denuclearisation issue, one of the world’s powder kegs,” writes Wang Xiangwei, former editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
For Japan, the implications of the Trump-Kim summit seem glum. Shinzo Abe might be looking for promises from Trump that US-Japan military exercise won’t face a similar fate, Narang told Vox. The exercise is aimed at keeping China in check which has deployed missiles to defend its infrastructure in the disputed South China Sea islands.
A reduced footprint of the US in the region will essentially mean Beijing’s domination. It has claimed 90 per cent of the resource-rich waterway. Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan also stake claim to different parts of the region. The South China Sea connects the Pacific with Indian oceans so the country which dominates the region will have an advantage.
India expressed hope that the outcome of the summit will be implemented. New Delhi dubbed the summit a “positive development.” Pyongyang’s links to Pakistan’s nuclear programme has been well documented but India wants the connection probed by an international agency.
“We also hope that the resolution of the Korean Peninsula issue will take into account and address our concerns about proliferation linkages extending to India’s neighbourhood," said Ministry of External Affairs. There is hope that North’s coming out of the cold and into international scrutiny might bring to light the connection that has fuelled Pakistan’s nuclear program.