Noah Smith, Bloomberg: Get Used to It, America: We’re No Longer No. 1
What a difference two decades makes. In 1997, China’s gross domestic product was about 11 percent of the U.S's. By 2017, it was up to 63 percent:
But this overstates the difference in living standards between the two countries, since prices are generally lower in China. In purchasing-power-parity terms, China’s economy became the world’s largest in about 2013:
So which country’s economy is really bigger? The truth probably lies somewhere between these two figures. If China were to abolish its capital controls and open its currency to foreign speculation, there’s a good chance the yuan would rise in value, bringing China’s GDP at market-exchange rates closer to its PPP numbers. In other words, the economies of China and the U.S. are now fairly evenly matched in size. But with four times the U.S. population, China has more room to grow. And China is already the world’s largest manufacturer and biggest exporter.
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WNU Editor: China still has a long way to go before it surpasses the U.S., and a lot can happen between then and now.
