Business Insider: China's hopes of becoming the world's largest economy are hitting a major roadblock
* China's growth potential could slow to 4.5% by 2030, according to analysts.
* Officials have shifted to stimulus programs, including tax cuts and infrastructure incentives, in an effort to curb the decline.
* But that could become increasingly difficult against a backdrop of debt and in wake of the trade war with the US, which has demanded structural reforms to the Chinese economy.
China’s economy is growing at its slowest pace in nearly three decades, and some economists say the worst is yet to come.
Growth potential in China is expected to slow to 5.5% from the current level of 6.5% between 2021 and 2025, according to new estimates from analysts at JPMorgan. That could fall to 4.5% by 2030, a pace that would make it difficult to surpass the US as the largest economy.
"This means that China will remain the second largest economy much longer than expected," the analysts said in a research note Wednesday. "The transition to slower potential growth could be volatile and requires balancing reforms to move to a more domestically driven growth model with deleveraging and public-sector restructuring."
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Update #1: China's Slowdown and the World Economy (Brad W. Setser, Council on Foreign Relations)
Update #2: How Bad Is China’s Economic Slowdown? It Depends What You Sell (Bloomberg)
WNU Editor: The trade war with the U.S. has stopped U.S. investment into China, and it has certainly curtailed American importers from buying Chinese goods. Its impact on China is now being felt. China's economy was always dependent on ever increasing trade surpluses with the U.S., and a blind eye from Washington on intellectual property theft and the dumping of goods. Those days are in the past. As for my prediction on the future. The slowdown in the Chinese economy will continue.
