Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 30, 2020

An oil worker walks towards a drill rig in Loving County in Texas, US, in November last year. Texas regulators are considering whether the US should curtail crude oil production for the first time in decades. Photo: Reuters

Donald Gasper, SCMP: As oil industry nears collapse, Saudi Arabia may have no option but to blink first in its price war with Russia

* Given coronavirus-weakened demand, and with Russia in a better financial position to ride out the price rout, a heavily indebted Saudi Arabia simply cannot afford to sell at such low prices for much longer, unless it wishes to take the oil industry down with it

A black swan is an unpredictable event, beyond what is normally expected of a situation and with potentially severe consequences. Such events are characterised by their extreme rarity and severe impact. The term was popularised by the 2007 book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

As if the coronavirus crisis was not enough, this month, another black swan hit “black gold” – a reference which reflects the high value of petroleum – as a sharp fall in global oil prices took the world’s markets by surprise and sent the oil industry reeling.

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 30, 2020

Saudis gambling on game of oil-price chicken -- Larry Elliott, The Guardian

Russians Grapple With Oil Price War at a Time of Pandemic -- Margarita Assenova, Jamestown

Foundation

Goldman: The Oil Industry Will Never Be The Same After Coronavirus -- Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com

A US-Saudi Oil Alliance? Here’s Why That’s Insane -- Jim Krane and Mark Finley, Forbes

U.S. Military Leaves Iraqi Bases Amidst Coronavirus and Iranian Threats -- Matthew Petti, National Interest

Coronavirus cease-fire offers pause in Yemen war -- Amberin Zaman, Al-Monitor

Economic Policies to Combat COVID-19 in Africa -- Célestin Monga, Project Syndicate

Africa Is Changing Too Fast to Ignore -- The Economist

In the coronavirus fog, tussling over Taiwan goes under the radar -- Lawrence Chung, SCMP

Why Taiwan has become a problem for WHO -- BBC

China's economic recovery from coronavirus could be ugly — and that's bad news for the rest of the world -- Bill Birtles, ABC News Online

Beware of China’s Coronavirus Propaganda -- Frida Ghitis, WPR

Make Beijing Pay for Lives and Billions Lost -- Sen. Josh Hawley, FOX News

How Will the Poorest Country in Europe Deal with the Coronavirus? -- Melinda Haring & Doug Klain, National Interest

How many deaths can we afford? -- Henrik Böhme, DW