University of Cambridge
Market Insider: The coronavirus pandemic could cost the global economy a nightmarish $82 trillion over 5 years, a Cambridge study warns
* The global economy could take a hit of some $82 trillion in a worst case scenario from the coronavirus, according to the Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge.
* In case of speedy recovery, an "optimistic loss" of $3.3 trillion is likely. But in the extreme event of an economic doomsday scenario, the global economy could lose $82 trillion in damages, the Centre for Risk Studies, part of the university, said.
* The figures are not meant to represent a shrinkage of the global economy, but rather how much potential growth the economy could lose if it slipped into a prolonged depression.
* "The world economy is still in the midst of the 'full stop' described by Daniel Defoe some 300 years ago," Keith Wade, chief economist at UK fund manager Schroders, said in a separate note.
The global economy could be set back by a harrowing $82 trillion in damages related to the coronavirus pandemic over the next five years, according to recent findings by a University of Cambridge department that examines systemic risks.
These cost projections are based on 2019 gross domestic product volumes which stood at $69.2 trillion for the world's 19 leading economies. The contrast, in comparison, is visibly massive.
The Centre for Risk Studies at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School determined that the potential toll could range between what it called an "optimistic loss" of $3.3 trillion in case of rapid recovery, and $82 trillion in the event of an economic depression.
Read more ....
Update: Pandemic could cost global economy $82 trillion in depression scenario (Market Watch)
WNU Editor: The University of Cambridge study is here .... The GDP@Risk over five years from COVID-19 could range from $3.3 trillion to $82 trillion, says the Centre for Risk Studies. As to what is my take. I try to be optimistic but the stats that I have been reading for the past week are beyond horrific. The tourism and travel industry is finished for the next year or two. The hospitality and restaurant industry is definitely kaput, and most restaurants will probably go bust. The entertainment industry will be producing only a fraction of the product that has been produced in the past few years. And for some, like many Broadway shows, will probably close-up. The energy industry, car manufacturers, housing ..... I can spend the next hour listing all the industries that will changed because of this pandemic, and not for the good. But what really scares me is/are the high debt levels that individuals/businesses/and governments are holding. I saw first hand in Russia in 1992 on what happens when debt and high unemployment can do to a country, and I am now seeing the same pattern today. With high unemployment numbers people will not be able to pay their debts, as a result we will be seeing bankruptcies and foreclosures later in the year when all of this stimulus money dries up. And then there is the pandemic itself. It is still out there, and it is ravaging Latin America and elsewhere. Bottom line. It is not going away, and if it continues until later next year, the worst case depression scenario will become our reality.
